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Energy Sector review April 3 (KMI, BP, E, SUN, RDS.A, MMP, TOT, XOM, VLO, CVX)

Yeah. So the first one we’re in the energy sector, the first one we have is K M I, I first started tracking this windows around here. Uh, I made some money on this, um, when it was here, when it was here, I don’t know if I caught it perfect, but I know I pretty much caught a majority of this run, uh, on options. But what I, what I do like is you’re going to see almost the same thing on all the energy, just because energy starting or the price of oil is starting To pop.

We’re close to the 17. Let’s look at the three

Year.

So when we look at pre Corona pre Corona, this was a $22 stock. We’re only at 16. So there’s quite a little, quite a bit of running room. We’re looking at 18 as, as literally our next big stop. If we broke, let me see if we break out of there. Okay. Well, if we can break out of the seven 12, then our next

Okay.

Kind of big hurdle would be right around here, which is the same. So basically we’re in this, this range right here, or you can see at the bottom of the range, right around here, where it’s first started, it’s pop, that’s where we are. And we are, we’re literally in this trading range, which was in 2018. So we’re three years ago. Um, again, I use almost every single one of these, these, these securities that we’re about to look at. It would have been amazing if we got it right on Corona, but we didn’t, we got it right around here. But if oil can maintain where it’s at, even just where it is at, let’s look at the price of oil. And so you understand what I’m saying?

Okay.

So this is the three years as well. So if we can maintain this, let’s go even further. Cause that it doesn’t really with the oil I’m going to have to show you.

Okay. Now we’re looking at 10. This isn’t 10 years ago. Yes, it was 10 years ago. So if you look, we’ve been in this downward trajectory, I mean energy. There’s a lot of lines, but if you look at this big one right here, this 50% line right here, the one that I’m circling over and over and over is like the group, the blueish line. If you look, we have been fighting this line since December of 14. So for the last six years, we’ve been fighting this line. If we can break above this line and hold it right, the last time we broke above and hold it, we only held it for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. And then on the 11th month, it dropped past it. I know it sounds like a long time, but when you look at it from, for the last six years, the only time it’s been a love it above it is for 11 months.

So if we can break above this line right here would be tied so much trouble with and hold it as you can see, it is 60, 66. We are like 40 cents below the line. Well, we are, we’re kind of shows that we’re above it. However, we’re right at the mix, right? We’re right at the line. Now breaking the 66 77. If we break that, then I would say, we’re, we’re truly in an upward trajectory. But because if you look at that, that was the last time we broke them above this line was and held. It was 2018. So three years ago, uh, if we can break above this line then, cause if you see, we broke out and this was, this was very obvious. Last month in March, we broke out above the 66, 77. We, so that means we broke the high of 2019, 2020.

We broke all of it. The last time we had been, there was October of 18 above 66, 77. We broke that, got rejected, came back down right to the hundred day, moving average. Remember the a hundred day coming down. Now it’s starting to show support. It’s been resistance for years now. It’s a, this is, remember this is a hundred month, right? So now it’s starting to show some support. If we can continuously stay above this level, look for us to, to trend higher. Our next huge. If we beat the 66 77, then our next, our next target would be 73, 45. Why am I telling you all this? Because it’s energy. It’s all based off of this. So when we go look back to K or mine, we don’t really need it. Cause like, okay, months, years ago, when in 2015, when oil was a little higher, this stock was already was at $44.

So we look up over here, this is the $22. So we’re, we got room to run just to pre Corona, right? So KMI when you’re looking at months out, like a thing with oil it’s fickle, right? So if you’re looking for a quick pop, be very careful with oil because it can do exactly what you don’t want it to do for a few months. And then out of nowhere, it can just explode. So with all of these that I’m going to go through, cause you can see there’s 10 of them. Any position that I would choose would be more looking towards the July or August, something like that. Just to give it some time in case it screws up and it goes against me.

Let’s go back to the days. So after looking at the months and everything on oil, my top, my first, uh, bet with this one would be 17. The options on this are pretty cheap. If you look so June, September area let’s look at June. I said July, but June was pretty close. So even if you look so look, the 17 June’s are 68 cents, right? The 16th, which you’re already in 84 cents. You were. So right now, if you buy the June’s, you’re only paying what 40 cents of premium, which isn’t bad at all right. And you’re holding it for 75 days with the potential of it going up to them almost 22, if oil can go. So that’s a decent one. I like that. Let me go ahead. Let me break that down. Cause that’s, you’re basically holding freedom Because if I, I hope you understand that if you don’t understand what I just said right there, you need to understand options a little bit better, but are really not because I bet you, you could even tell a calendar. Yeah. You could tell a calendar call cause look, um, I don’t want to go into that. That’s a little bit too confusing and I want to do that, however,

Okay.

Um, I,

June seven, 16, 16 June.

Yeah. Cause they don’t know. I have monthly. I liked that looks looks good because we’re, we’re looking at, uh, 17 or basically 18 breakout. And we’re trying to get the S the 17, the sixteens, the sixteens for under $2.

Yeah.

We’re already 84 cents in the money British put totally, um, uh, out of all of them or out of, so let’s look at a difference. Ooh, that’s the one thing I did not look at earnings. So let’s look at weeks first. So we have earnings on four 21. That would be the only deterrent for me not getting this option right here is just for the earnings on off or the 19th. So I would say after earnings, after earnings, I mean, what’s the probability that’s going to have a negative earnings when oil shot all the way up, as much as it has, it’s a very low project or probability. However, not something I want to risk

British petroleum. When you look at the weeks that says, eh, it’s steady making a, a nice trial and like grind higher. We got rejected on the hundred week. Moving average kind of got rejected on the downside, but we’re also building some support. Mind you, this is on the week’s earnings on four 27, uh, with all of the, I’ll be very careful going into earnings. I understand the last earnings. It was great. It popped it up, but this is weak. And if you notice on the week of the earnings, it went down, but the next week it popped up. So then we give the earnings, they went down and the next week it popped up the week of the earnings. If down in the next week, it popped up. So I’m going to take that in consideration. Wait a little bit, see what happens with the earnings and go from there. There’s just too, there’s too much things that could happen when it comes to earnings and oil.

Now this one looks decent. I will say, I know the earnings are on the 30th. So again, be very careful, but this one’s showing like, look at the difference. This is E it’s showing a lid, so it’s already broken, right. It already filled this gap. It’s already taken out this, this struggle. It’s already taken out this struggle. So we’re looking at where are we? So we’re looking to try to take out the next struggles and we’re above the a hundred week moving average. Let’s go down to the day. Oh yeah. Look at that. That’s it’s at a high in the last three years. So with the, or within the last year, within the last year, is that a high within the last three years? Forties it’s high, but we’re, it looks like where we’re trying to go for that 32. So I would say yes with this, one of what are you doing?

No, I go out in August because this is what I’m saying. Like the 20 sevens, $2 out, this is ridiculously cheap. You could go for the thirties for 25 cents. And you’re getting like how many days? You’re at 135 days

With a target of 30. Like we’re looking at a target of 30 to a targeted 30 for 138 days. It’s only 50. So you’re giving it, this is literally, you’re not risking anything you’re lifting or you almost get it for 25 cents or $25 for a potential of $2 easy. Cause that’s just breaking the, to right here, which it doesn’t have very much thing. It has a 27. It has, uh, some defense at 28 had a little defense and give or take 30, 56 has offense up to 32. So yeah, this one, I liked this one better than I liked the KMI honestly, cause we’re giving ourselves a lot of time. Let’s look at November, but November is not very much more expensive. You have to look. So the November 27th, it’s almost better to get to. November’s just cause they’re cheaper. Right? Uh, there’s nobody even thinking about these, you know, of course in first let’s look at the front months different. Yeah. There’s not very many, there’s not very much volume in any of this. Honestly. However, the November for a, basically a dollar get a 27 fifties, that would be beautiful. Let’s go E

27 50 November.

Nope, go

Beautiful chart. Beautiful. One from 10. And it’s basically recap and it’s it’s, it’s, Richter’s, it’s all on. When the traveling comes back on, this is May 10th is, is, is its earnings. Um, this would probably be the only one out of all these I would be like, yeah, like we could probably hold into earnings just for this one simple fact look how powerful this bed. It has an, it is reaches bottom and gone full cylinders, all full steam ahead. Now we’re about to break out and it’s almost a, this is, remember let’s go on the month. Okay. So we’re not close to our Mo our forever high, which was in 1459. But if we break out of the 34, which we’re pretty close, right? If you see this line right here, our next one is 36 39, and then all the way up to 46. So we’re looking at a 14 point pre or four 14 points of a potential, which is enormous. Let’s just look at the, let’s look at this.

Yeah. See,

Even showing us our 42 and our 48 from the top to the bottom of that would be our one to seven and our six to one with the 34 Oh nine as being our next blockage, I would want to see what it does at the 34 Oh nine break above the 3,409 and then hold it and go from there. Now these are months. Let’s go back to the days. So yeah, that kind of gives us some lines to kind of look at, and you can see it got stopped at the 33, which is pretty close. And if you see these lines have been pretty consistent, it’s bouncing on here, holding this line, holding, holding, holding, holding, got stopped out before. Next one. Let’s look at that. And then if we do this every week, then we’re going to be paying attention. Once it holds it 34 Oh nine, then I’d be more apt to get it. The only reason I’m not right now is just because, I mean, we literally have a huge blockage in front of us. I mean, we do have a beautiful squeeze coming. Beautiful squeeze. My only thing, which is to see if you get above 34 Oh nine, break above coming down, then get it onto the next one.

Nope.

Nope. I don’t like it. I like, I like it for the portfolio. I don’t like where it is right now.

Four 29. I mean, it’s, don’t get me wrong. When it comes to the weekly chart, it’s building, it’s PR it’s building it. It just, uh, the, the a hundred weeks it’s above it, broke it about to find support. So on a weekly chart, it looks a little bit better as it kind of stair-stepping itself a little bit higher, however, on a daily, I mean, it’s

And at the bakery break above the 50, right? For me to be interested, I was kind of see if it, it would, it does. Um, our earnings are coming pretty soon. $4 is the high let’s kind of check it out in a month. How high was this thought? 80. So when

We look at that, so we’re, this is our resistance and this is February of 16. So we’re, we’re, we’re being, our numbers are being are fighting right now, February of 16. That’s the battle what’s going on. Uh, with this one, earnings are four 29. Um, again, we got another week, let’s all look at this. The it’s nowhere near as Corona value. It’s like halfway through, it’s going to value. So I would just watch it, just wait, MMP. This one. Uh, if you look, I mean, this was at 90, but this is a partnership. So it’s very different. The reason why this is in the portfolio, it’s not in the portfolio for us to make a huge big game. Like this is more, that’s going to pay us lovely dividends

Or rather partnership agreements. The higher that oil goes, the better our partnership agreements going to be. So that’s more or less where we’re looking, um, with the monthly chart. Yeah. I mean, we could break out of the 46 and we make it up to the 61, which would be great. Um, Virgin to the mean we’re, we’re still, we’re still the 150 month moving averages are kind of trending down. It’s not something I’d really want to bet my house on. That’s not the reason why this is in our portfolio. This is in our portfolio for dividends.

Uh, total on the monthly.

Yeah.

It’s not horrible. The daily. Okay. Look on the daily. We just bouncing off the 50. So, you know, trended, it, it has gone past the 50 kind of training on the 100. So just keep that in mind that it could kind of rumble down here, but it really has to do with the price of oil. Let’s not forget this was then oil bounced up and then it kind of came down and now oil is about to go on this trajectory or at least attempt a little bit higher. So it’s the price of oil is going to bring all these stocks higher, the best ones to play. I’m not really quite sure. I kinda liked the Sunoco. Uh, I’m going to put Sonoco note, the KMI Sunoco and the E uh, the ones that I have written down are KMI June and E Sunoco. I don’t know why I didn’t really figure that.

Um, cause it, it, Oh, after I want to see it hit the 34 Oh nine and then go for it. That’s why it’s a no-code is not written down, but Sunoco looked amazing. Exxon mobile there. I mean, if oil continues to rise, ExxonMobil’s going above 62. It’s just, it’s just gonna happen. Look at our minds. It was like in the hundreds. Yeah. So it was at a hundred, we’re almost at the Corona. 70 was a Corona. We had a long, a hard time kind of breaking above the 30. I mean, we were stuck in the thirties, although basically up until, uh, what is this, the beginning of this year? So Exxon was amazing purchase down here. Now, do I think it’s going to continue to rise and be above its glory days? Yes I do. Because they are also trying to transition to, to renewable energy. So this entire time that oil has been down, it’s allowed these, these behemoths to buy a lot of energy, right. And kind of diversify their assets. These guys have a lot of money and they have a lot of like, LLPs where they get paid. A lot of just royalties off of their operations.

Um, for this moment though,

Four 30. Uh, when you look at the weekly, they are above the 50 and the a hundred and there, this looks decent. It looks decent. Just be careful. Cause you’re going to get some or, uh, some the beat, the butter, you’re going to have some resistance right around this level of the 66. Um, mind you, we’re only starting with a small amount of option money to partake. So I can’t have every opportunity. It looks good. Am I gonna jump on? Um, but that looks like a decent opportunity. As long as it stays above the, the yellow and the red line on the weekly chart, the daily chart it’s well above it. It’s well above it. I would just be a little careful and wait for the 50 to kind of creep up towards it. Uh, is it doesn’t look like it’s wants to go any lower, but it might be waiting for a time for both of these to kind of go up and meet it where it’s at before it takes off again.

VLO 

I mean, looking at the year, we’re looking great. Almost great. I thought that was a Corona high. However, it’s not the Corona high was up, was up here 97. So we’re 20 points out of the, the high, but we’re on the weekly chart. I mean, this is kind of what you’re looking. Whoa, look at this the 22nd. So I’d be careful on all of these have earnings coming up, which I would like to see after the earnings, what they say. But again, at all the earnings, this could really take you to like shoot the stocks higher just for the simple fact, oil has gone higher. So they’re every borough barrel of oil they produce today. Tomorrow, yesterday is at a what? $20 premium than a year before. So oil should be looking good there. Their numbers should come in. Good. But it’s just nervous. You don’t know. I don’t know all the intricacies of each of these countries

Or rather companies. So I wouldn’t be a hundred percent sure is betting long on each one of these going into earnings. We don’t know how much of the oil they sold three months prior. That’s more or less what I’m talking about because yes, oil has gone on, I skyrocket, but if they sold other oil, let’s say they sold, uh, cause it’s all futures. So if they sold all their oil at $45 and it’s at $60 right now, then they didn’t gain anything really off this pop. They’d already sold it at 45, so they didn’t lose, but they didn’t gain. So then that would take another three months, which would, would come up in the June earning or June, July, something like that, August earnings report, which on that one would pop it right? If oil maintained at a certain level above 60, because then on the second one, if they sell on that quarter, then they sold it at 60 opposed to 45. I understand maybe not the most, uh, best description. Um, if you followed me great, if you didn’t, I apologize.

Chevron

Seminar in Valero kind of look the same As in they came now they’re looking to kind of pop, but Chevron looks a little bit better. I will say it is finding it support at it’s mid, uh, just as June of last year when it got rejected from the 50 week, uh, it is above that level. We are sniffing this, so we’re right at. Okay. So yeah, our high, this I over here is at the bottom of this range. So the whole 2000 years is 2019, the 2019 range. We were at the bottom of it, which is really nice.

And we’re above the, before the great, the great, the perfect storm, right? So the, the low of that was give or take one Oh five 61. We’re at one Oh five 75. So if we can hold above that one on five 61 and you know, time kind of brings these higher than Chevron would be something I would love to see what’s even the earnings

30. So at the end of this month, then this month, we’re going to see a lot bouncing around in the oil market. So yeah, look, it was at a one 12. This bad boy wants to go higher. It wants to be above one 12. I can feel it, it again, it might be a couple more days, let the 150 day moving average, move up closer. And then I’m, I’m guessing it’s going to, uh, absorb both these marks because it wanted to go down, but it almost did. We’re looking at 199, basically a dollar away from touching. So let’s wait a little bit because now if you look at it, uh, the 50 is now at this level. So if it goes a little bit higher, if it, this maintains it, then the 50 is going to go a little bit higher and we’ll probably reach around the one Oh two. So when the 50 gets to about one Oh two, if it touches it, then I could see it skyrocketing from there. All right. That’s all of them. And talk to you next week.